Agenda
Day One: 4th June, 2009
8:30
Registration and coffee
9:15
Chairperson’s opening remarks
Andrew Muriel, Partner, DLA Piper
9:30
Outlook for 2009/10: Is it going to get worse before it gets better?
- How has the global economic and financial crisis affected the aviation industry in Russia and CIS?
- FX problem: With the devaluation of the rouble against other currencies, how is the Russian aviation industry going to survive this year?
- How long will it take for the industry to recover to the levels of 2007?
- What are the key strategies for airlines to implement to survive the downturn and prepare for the upturn?
- What are the development prospects in this region brought out by the current challenging state of the market?
Oleg Panteleev, Chief Editor, AviaPort
10:00
New horizon: What is the new landscape for airlines in Russia and CIS?
- What is the impact of the consolidation of airlines?
- How will the industry withstand the effects of decreased air travel?
- What strategies should be implemented for vulnerable organisations to combat market challenges?
- What is the demand for aircrafts in the medium to long term?
- Will Russian and CIS carriers service only domestic markets or will they be increasing their global reach?
- How are airlines going to make high leasing payments in the face of air travel decrease?
- For airlines, is replacing old aircrafts with more fuel efficient models the answer to cost optimisation in the current times?
- Are savings being made over and above the cost of purchase?
Dmitry Ligus, Head of Strategic Development, Aeroflot Don
Andrey Ilmensky, Senior Vice President, UTair Aviation
Vitaly Golovin, First Deputy General Director, KD Avia
Andrey Egorov, Sales and Marketing Director, Sky Express
Karl Dandler, Financial Executive, Ukraine International Airlines
Moderated by: Olga Razzhivina, Senior Analyst, Ascend
11:00
Refreshments and networking break
11:45
Banking perspective: What are the options for aircraft financing in Russia and CIS?
- Where is financing for airlines and lessors going to come from?
- With the lack financing options available, will plans for growth for this key industry be pushed back? If so, how much will this restrict the industry in the long term?
- What are the options for obtaining financing from domestic banks?
- Which European or International banks are able to finance Russian airlines in the context of perceptions of Russia’s area risk?
- What are bank’s appetite for re-financing deals in Russia and CIS in 2009/10?
- Is there a need for more complex financing structures to protect against the risk of aviation finance at present? Or is there a drive for simpler deals?
Marc Bourgade, Chief Financial Officer, Natixis Transport Finance
12:15
From lessors: What challenges does 2009 bring for Russia and CIS and how will leasing play a role?
- What are the lessors’ risk exposures in Russia considering the current difficulties being faced by airlines?
- Will lessors offer more attractive leasing terms to stimulate airlines? Will they be in a position to do this?
- How are lessors going to obtain financing for aircraft purchases this year?
- How confident are lessors that their re-financing needs will be met by banks?
- With airlines decreasing capacity to take on new leases and the limited access to liquidity, what is the health of the leasing industry?
- Is the current downturn going to produce an increase in investments in the secondary market?
Andrey Lebedinets, Deputy Director General, Ilyushin Finance Co.
Alexander Plats, Senior Vice President, Sales, GECAS
Kirill Aladyshev, CFO & Financial Director, VTB Leasing
Moderated by: Julie McLean, Partner, Conyers Dill & Pearman
13:15
Lunch
14:45
Low Cost Carrier’s outlook: What are Sky Express’ strategies for surviving this year?
What is the effect of the reorganisation of Low Cost Carriers (LCC)? What LCC airlines are still in strong positions?
What strategies are necessary for LCCs to survive the tough market conditions? Is the low cost business model an effective strategy for combating challenges of the downturn?
Which airlines are going to be affected more by the decrease in air travels - LCC or larger airlines?
How are LCCs going to obtain financing this year? Where is it going to come from?
Will the exemption of tax on importing western aircrafts aimed at domestic carriers be beneficial for gaining competitive advantage? Will LCCs be in a financially sound position to purchase aircrafts anyway?
Is the key to survival to negotiate better terms on operating leases?
Marina Bukalova, General Director, Sky Express
15:15
Factors impeding the development of the Russian civil aviation market
- Import taxes? Are they holding back the market and have selected import tax removals stimulated the market at all?
- Where to register the aircraft now that Bermuda has closed entry and curtailed existing registrants?
- What should be done to make the Russian aircraft register attractive to lessors and financiers?
- What are the effects of problems encountered after the Air Union collapse? How do you ensure that there is sufficient protection when things go wrong?
- Signing the Cape Town Convention: why the hold up?
Andrew Muriel, Partner, DLA Piper
15:30
Refreshments and networking break
16:15
Is ECA backed finance the light at the end of the tunnel?
-
How much of a contribution will ECAs make to the shortage of financing seen in Russia and CIS aviation?
-
Will ECAs be able to guarantee the level of financing necessary to support the industry?
-
Do banks have the capital necessary to finance the deals underwritten by ECAs?
-
If private sector funding is not available, what can ECAs do to secure sufficient financing needs are met?
-
ECA guarantees:
· Is this enough to attract financiers to support Russian and CIS airlines and lessors?
· If not, what are the alternatives?
· Will direct lending be an option?
Svetlana Piradova, Head of Moscow Office, SACE
Rod Lever, Chief Representative, Russia & CIS, EDC
Jean Le Cocguic, Principal Administrator, Export Credits Division, Trade Directorate, OECD
Cheryl Conlin, Senior Loan Officer, Export-Import Bank of the United States
Moderated by: Marc Bourgade, Chief Financial Officer, Natixis Transport Finance
17:00
End of day one followed by networking drinks reception
Day Two: 20th March, 2009
8:30
Morning refreshments
9:00
Chairperson’s opening remarks
Kirill Aladyshev, CFO & Financial Director, VTB Leasing
9:15
Taking off? What is 2009 going to bring for the global aircraft market?
-
What models are available?
-
Which particular aircrafts fits the needs of the Russian and CIS market best?
-
What models are aircraft values seeing a price drop this year?
-
How is the secondary market benefiting from the current downturn?
Mike Skinner, Chief Executive, AMS
James Uniacke, Associate Director, Focus Aviation
Olga Razzhivina, Senior Analyst, Ascend
10:00
Alternative sources of financing: What opportunities are present for multilateral financing?
-
What interventions do multilaterals have in place to facilitate Russian and CIS airlines and manufacturers’ development?
-
What programmes are being implemented in the region this year?
-
How much investment will be provided to airlines this year from development banks?
-
Will the level of financing increase in the liquidity tight conditions?
Florence Bachelard-Bakal, Senior Banker and Aerospace Coordinator, Transport Team, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
10:30
Refreshments and networking break
11:15
Clash of the titans: Outlook on the Russia and CIS market from Airbus and Boeing
-
What is the consequence for the high expectations for the Russian and CIS market to re-fleet airlines on the placement of orders for this year?
-
Are orders exceeding the rate that aircrafts can be absorbed?
-
Will the abolition of taxation on particular aircrafts be significant in stimulating Russian purchases?
-
How many deliveries of aircrafts have been made are expected in Russia and CIS this year? How many deliveries have been deferred?
Vadim Vlasov, President, CEO, General Director Airbus Russia, EADS Russia
Alexander Jabenko, Director Marketing Russia and CIS , Boeing
Moderated by: Anna Doumnova, Senior Research Analyst – Aviation, Concise Aerospace
12:00
Regional manufacturers: What is the demand for aircrafts in Russia and CIS?
-
What are the expectations for fleet modernisation for the region’s airlines? Is 2009 the year this actually happens?
-
What financing options are there for customers in Russia and CIS?
-
Are regional manufacturers benefiting from airlines that are to down-sizing fleets?
-
Will the present downturn affect developments of new aircrafts?
-
What are the issues of certifying aircrafts in Russia preventing Russia and CIS airlines from placing orders?
-
Is there a place for Russian manufacturing against the dominance of its western competitors?
-
Can Sukhoi survive on Russian airline demands alone?
-
What are the marketing prospects of the Sukhoi Superjet in a world facing economic recession?
Mark Gilbert, Sales Account Executive, Bombardier Aerospace
Claudio Cheinquer, Sales Director, Embraer
Mario Formica, Vice President, Marketing, ATR
Moderated by: Florence Bachelard-Bakal, Senior banker and Aerospace coordinator, Transport Team, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)
12:45
Lunch
14:15
Manufacturer finance: Will manufacturers provide more support for airlines in trouble this year?
- Will manufacturers be able to provide more financial support for airlines in the face of tightening liquidity constraints?
- Do manufacturers have the capacity to provide increased need to finance the customers?
- What factors do manufacturers take into account when considering whether they will offer support to a particular airline?
- Where are manufacturers obtaining their own financing? Will this source disappear?
- Are the increased financing manufacturers are providing becoming trouble some for their own business?
Tony Simpson, Managing Director of Aircraft Financial Services for Europe, Russia and Central Asia, Boeing Capital Corporation
Christophe Million-Rousseau, Senior Director Customer Finance, Airbus
Moderated by: Jean Le Cocguic, Principal Administrator, Export Credits Division, Trade Directorate, OECD
15:00
Volga Dnepr: What is the coming year going to bring for cargo carriers?
- What business strategies are critical to surviving the challenging decline air freight volumes?
- How has the decrease in cargo volumes affected the industry? Is the domestic or international market going to be affected most?
- What opportunities are there for business to recover for this year?
- What business benefits does the decreased cost of oil bring? Is this being offset by the weakening rouble compared to other currencies?
Dmitry Obsharov, Director of Marketing, Volga Dnepr
15:30
Refreshments and networking break
16:00
What opportunities does 2009/10 hold for engine manufacturers in the current market conditions?
- What are the engine requirements for the Russian and CIS market?
- How will the downturn affect the demand for engines in the region?
- Managing asset values and maintenance.
- How will new technologies benefit aviation in the Russian and CIS?
Lionel Gobert, Sales Director, CFM
Jean-Paul Ebanga, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, PowerJet
Moderated by: Sergey Koltovich, General Director for Russia, Jet Alliance
16:30
Aircraft registration: Challenges and opportunities for Russian operated aircrafts
- What are the procedures and benefits of registering aircrafts offshore?
- What are the challenges in Bermuda’s registration procedure?
- How does this impact on airlines and lessors operating in Russia?
- What locations are suitable alternatives to registration?
Julie McLean, Partner, Conyers Dill & Pearman
Thomas Dunstan, Director of Civil Aviation Bermuda, Bermuda Department of Civil Aviation
Jorge Colindres Marinakis, President & CEO, The Registry of Aruba/International Air Safety Office Inc
Moderated by: Andrew Muriel, Partner, DLA Piper