Day 1, Thursday 5th November
0830 Registration and morning coffee
0900 Chairman’s welcome and opening remarks
Bharat Bhise, CEO, Bravia Capital Partners
0910 From 2000 to 2009 - what a difference a decade makes to aviation finance
- The shifting paradigm of aviation finance from west to east
- Is it all about China Inc. or are there new opportunities for all players?
- What will the global airfinance market look like in the next 5 to 10 years?
Donal Boylan, Director, Marketing, Hong Kong Aviation Company
0940 The Hong Kong forecast
- How has the industry fared?
- Trends in supply of airlines flights and seats
- Is reduction in capacity stabilising?
- Will passenger traffic volume increase next year?
- Premium – will it ever be the same?
- Which areas will rebound fastest?
- What percentage of Asia traffic will be LCCs in the future?
Peter Morris, Chief Economist, Ascend
1010 Airlines’ panel discussion: Managing through the downturn
This is a 60 minute debates for operators around the world to justify their positions, question their peers and outline their plans for the future operations and financing of their business
- How bad is it out there?
- What can airlines do to survive?
- Are there any costs left to cut?
- Negotiating lease terms when lessors want flexibility
- FX and rates vs fuel - is now the time to hedge?
- Cargo – when will it return?
- How committed are banks? Are there any relationship banks left?
- Is long term commercial financing coming back soon?
- Are airlines looking at carbon trading?
Moderator: Bharat Bhise, CEO, Bravia Capital Partners
Tengku Dato’Azmil Zahruddin, CEO, Malaysia airlines
Eddy Porwanto, EVP Financial Services, CFO, Garuda Indonesia
David Mackrell, Deputy Chief Financial Officer, Air New Zealand
David Arendt, Executive VP & CFO, Cargolux Airlines
Roger Han, Senior VP, China Airlines
1110 Networking coffee break
1150 Bankers’ panel: Forget 2009 – what’s 2010 looking like?
- Is Libor working again?
- Are there any new markets or structures?
- Can Chinese and Asian banks fill the gap?
- How is the underwriting process different from previous year?
- Cost of funding in a low interest rate environment and status of market disruption
- Is long term commercial bank financing coming back soon?
- Is there an alternative funding platform for aircraft financing?
- Institutional demand for airlines’ credits
- Investors’ reactions to EXIM guarantee bonds
- Impact of airline rating deterioration on the credit committee of banks under Basel II
Moderator: Volker Fabian, Managing Director, Amentum Capital
José ABRAMOVICI, Global Head of Aviation Group & Rail Finance, CALYON
Anup Mysoor, Managing Director, Global Banking, Citi
Hu Qingyun, Regional Head of Aviation Finance, ICBC
Louis Douady, Head of Aircraft Finance Asia Pacific, Natixis Transport Finance
1235 Lunch
1340 Capital structure approach to financing different aircraft
- What is the optimal capital structure for a well-funded airline?
- Key considerations in financing the latest aircraft
- Reducing the cost of capital in a capital inadequate world
- Managing the gap between short-term and long-term credit obligations
Thomas J. Hollahan, Managing Director, Global Head of Aviation, Citi
1410 Export credit panel discussion: How much funding are ECAs willing to commit to the aviation industry?
- Effect of the liquidity crisis on ECAs’ financing strategies
- What are the main challenges for export credit financing?
- Will ECAs increase their role in aircraft financing?
- What are the innovative structures to support export credit financing?
- Are export credit deal flows getting larger?
- How competitive is the margin on EXIMs deals?
- EXIM loan vs EXIM bonds – how favorable are the financing terms?
- ECA’ support for PDPs – when will we see the first deal?
Moderator: Louis Douady, Head of Aircraft Finance Asia Pacific, Natixis Transport Finance
Gordon Welsh, Head of Aerospace Finance, ECGD
Bob Morin, Vice President, Transportation Division, Export-Import Bank of the United States
Oliver Wendland, Head of Aircraft Financing, Euler Hermes
Patrice Guindon, Strategic Account Executive, Transportation, Export Development Canada
1455 Networking coffee break
1525 Financing an old aircraft
- Sourcing the new financing for an old aircraft
- Refinancing the balloon at maturity
- Sales and lease back of old airplanes
- Residual value risk
Bill Cumberlidge, Executive Director, KV Aviation
1555 Aircraft valuation – what is the right aircraft to buy and sell?
- Assessing the re-marketability of an aircraft – what are the key considerations?
- Which aircraft is most liquid in the secondary market?
- Impact of B787/A350 delays on twin aisle aircraft values
- What are the least popular aircraft?
- Which type of aircraft will be forced to retire in the next few years?
Eddy Pieniazek, Head of Consultancy, Ascend
1625 Low Cost Carrier panel discussion: Are LCC models faring better than the legacy carriers?
- Which business models work best in challenging times?
- Aircraft financing and leasing under the current economic climate
- Is cutting cost the most efficient way to achieve higher margins?
- Balancing the financing cost and operational cost
- Meeting the shareholders’ expectations - ROI and profitability
- Breaking the domestic boundary - can Asia’s LCCs expand across Asia?
Moderator: Paul Ng, Global Head of Aviation, Stephenson Harwood
Dr. Reginald Macdonald, CEO, Viva Macau
Riyaz Peermohamed, Chief Financial Officer, IndiGo
1700 Close of day one followed by cocktail reception
Day 2, Friday 6th November
0830 Registration and morning coffee
0900 Chairman’s welcome and opening remarks
Anup Mysoor, Managing Director, Global Banking, Citi
0910 Keynote: Liquidity management for airlines in a troubled world
- Managing the debt ratio
- Liquidity management and capital structure improvement for airlines
- Fuel price volatility- will it return? How can airlines react?
- Incorporating long term strategy into lease and buy decisions
Greg Manning, Treasurer, Capital Markets, Qantas
0940 20/20/20 session: Airbus vs Boeing - Demand for aircraft in Asia
(The representatives from Airbus and Boeing will deliver 20 minutes presentation each and the reaming 20 minutes will followed by a panel debates over the demand for aircraft in Asia)
- Traffic volume vs demand for aircraft
- Order book and deliveries in 2010
- Narrow bodies vs wide bodies
- Super jumbo vs Jumbo jet
- Overcoming the challenges for matching production rates and deliveries
- Dealing with cancellations and inventory
- What new technologies could fundamentally change fleet operation?
Moderator: Alasdair Whyte, Group Editor and Publisher, Airfinance Journal
Andy Shankland, Vice President Marketing, Airbus
Randy Tinseth, Vice President, Marketing, Boeing
1040 Asset management in engine leasing
- Impact of aviation cycles on engine value
- Managing the seasonal demand for engine leasing
- Performance of top engine types in leasing markets
- What are the non –performing assets in the engine leasing markets?
- Who keeps maintenance reserves in a default scenario?
- Insurance coverage – are insurance premiums surging?
- Depreciation rates – how much you could save on tax?
- ROI – could engines outperform aircraft
Jon Sharp, President and Chief Executive Officer, ELFC
1110 Networking coffee break
1140 Regional manufacturers’ panel discussion: Is there room for growth in the regional aviation market?
- Where are the niche markets for regional manufacturers?
- Are regional manufacturers well prepared for shrinking demand?
- What are the regional manufacturers doing with production?
- Developing new engine types – what will be the key features?
Moderator: Jon Sharp, President and Chief Executive Officer, ELFC
Trung Ngo, Vice President, Sales Asia Pacific, Bombardier Aerospace Commercial Aircraft
Wilson Nishida, Marketing and Business Development Director, Embraer Asia Pacific
Christophe Potocki, General Manager of Sales, ASEAN and Asia Pacific, ATR Aircraft
1225 Will the JOL ever come back?
- Where do airlines and lessors gain access to capital?
- Size and market segment of the Japanese leasing market
- Current market trends in JOLs
Robert Melson, Partner, Latham & Watkins
1255 Lunch
1355 Is the equity performance of airlines improving?
- Outlook for airlines’ business conditions – is the climate improving?
- Balance sheet capacity – is it strengthening?
- Technical analysis vs fundamental approach - have we found the bottom yet?
- Equity valuation on Asia’s airlines
- LCCs vs legacy carriers - which category performs better?
Moderator: Anup Mysoor, Managing Director, Global Banking, Citi
Tom Kim, Regional Transportation Research, Goldman Sachs
Mark Webb, Regional Head of Conglomerates and Transport Research, Asia Pacific, HSBC
1425 Lessors’ panel discussion: Buying into the downturn and selling in the upturn
- Where are we in the cycle?
- Is now the time to buy?
- Opportunities for new entrants?
- Lease rates on popular aircraft
- M&A in the leasing industry – will sales continue?
- How can lessors find funding?
Moderator: Andre Cohen, CEO, Coherent Financial LLP
Richard Cherney, Executive Vice President, Aviation Capital Group
Bill Cumberlidge, Executive Director, KV Aviation
Simon Perkins, Managing Director - Aviation Finance, Standard Chartered
David Swan, Chief Operating Officer, RBS Global Banking & Markets, RBS Aviation Capital
1510 Networking coffee break
1540 Chinese lessors’ panel discussion: Moving into the cross border leasing arena
- Is it the right time to launch a leasing company?
- Where will the demand come from for Chinese lessors?
- What is the operational leverage for Chinese lessors?
- Structuring the cross border leasing terms – how attractive are the rates?
- How long will it take to develop an operating lease market in China?
Moderator: Anup Mysoor, Managing Director, Global Banking, Citi
Frank Gao, General Manager, CHANGJIANG Financial Leasing
Johnny Lau, Managing Director, Global Head of Aviation Finance, ICBC Leasing
Robert Martin, Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer, BOC Aviation
1625 An aircraft finance odyssey: Will the funding gap arrive in 2010?
- How much can banks, lessors, manufacturers and export credit agencies really provide?
- Will the funding gap materialise in 2010?
- Will we see white tails?
- What will the cost of funding be?
- Are there any solutions?
Moderator: Alasdair Whyte, Group Editor and Publisher, Airfinance Journal
Kostya Zolotusky, Managing Director, Capital Markets Development, Boeing Capital Corporation
Christophe Million-Rousseau, Customer Finance, Senior Director, Airbus SAS
José ABRAMOVICI, Global Head of Aviation Group & Rail Finance, CALYON
Robert Martin, Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer, BOC Aviation
Gordon Welsh, Head of Aerospace Finance, ECGD
1710 Chairman’s closing remarks and close of conference