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Agenda Overview

Investor's Day: Tuesday, May 16, 2017

8:30AM Registration and refreshments
8:50AM Chairperson’s opening remarks
Tim Lynes, Partner, Katten Muchin Rosenman LLP
9:00AM An overview of the North American airline market
  • What is the expected trajectory for US airline unit costs and revenues?
  • How are balance sheets positioned in this market?
  • Is anyone hedging fuel anymore? And does it matter?
  • How do cash flows look in a stressed environment?
Justine Fisher, SVP Credit Research, Goldman Sachs
9:30AM On-stage interview with John Plueger: Trends in the North American Leasing Market
  • How competitive are North American lessors?
  • Is there a correlation between airline and lessor profitability?
  • How will lessors’ financing strategies evolve over the coming year?
Moderator: Mark Streeter, Managing Director, Airline/Aircraft Credit Research, J.P. Morgan
John Plueger, Chief Executive Officer and President, Air Lease Corporation
10:00AM Trends affecting North American carriers profitability = demand for new aircraft deliveries
  • Drivers for recent profitability and potential headwinds

  • Impact of such trends affecting demand for new deliveries

  • “Where to from here?” Growing focus on technology driving revenue/cost changes

John E Luth, Chairman, Accenture Aviation and Chairman, President & CEO of Seabury Capital Group LLC, Seabury Consulting now part of Accenture
10:30AM Values matter: a look at aircraft value retention
  • Which aircraft display the greatest value retention?
  • What do investors need to know about valuations and methods for valuations?
  • What does it mean for investors when market value is higher than base value?
David Tokoph, President and CEO, Morten Beyer & Agnew
Stuart Rubin, Vice President, ICF
Phil Seymour, Chief Executive Officer, IBA Group Limited
Dick Forsberg, Head of Strategy, Avolon
11:00AM Networking & Refreshments
11:30AM The deal breakdown session
  • How are EETCs structured and rated?
  • What returns have been seen in the EETC market?
  • Who is issuing in the market?
Sarah Briand, Vice President, Morgan Stanley
Helen Kotsovos, Senior Director, Financing, Air Canada
Mark Lessard, Partner, Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman
Scott Debano, Managing Director, Citibank
Jonathan Root, Senior Vice President, Moody's Investors Service
11:55AM The deal breakdown session: ABS
  • How do you evaluate an ABS deal?
  • What structural evolutions have been seen?
  • Are we likely to see more ABS deals on end of life aircraft?
Matthew Little, Head of Business Development, Castlelake
Anthony Nocera, Senior Managing Director, ABS, Kroll Bond Ratings
Tim Lynes, Partner, Katten Muchin Rosenman LLP
Keith Allman, Vice President - Senior Securitized Asset Analyst, Loomis Sayles
12:20PM The deal breakdown session: Airlines unsecured & other debt
  • How are unsecured bonds structured?
  • Why do equity investors take a different view from debt investors in airline vs. lessor debt?
  • Which airlines are issuing unsecured bonds and what coupon rates can we expect to see?
Patrick Kaufer, Managing Director, Global Head of Aviation Capital Markets, Deutsche Bank
Mark Streeter, Managing Director, Airline/Aircraft Credit Research, J.P. Morgan
Craig Fraser, Managing Director, Fitch Ratings
12:45PM The deal breakdown session: Lessors’ unsecured and other debt
  •  How does lessor unsecured issuance differ from airline?
  •  How do unsecured coupon rates compare to those achieved by airlines?
  •  How do public lessors respond to low equity valuations and how does this impact debt markets?
Gregory Willis, Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer, Air Lease Corporation
Christian McCormick, Managing Director – Finance, China Aircraft Leasing Group
Betsy Snyder, Director, Corporate Ratings, S&P Global Ratings
Mark Streeter, Managing Director, Airline/Aircraft Credit Research, J.P. Morgan
Mike Inglese, Acting CEO & CFO, Aircastle
1:10PM Lunch
2:30PM How attractive are private placements for investors?
  • What structures have we seen so far this year?
  • What are the pros/cons and what size deal falls in the sweet spot for private placements?
  •  Is the market under supplied and will demand in this space increase?
Rafael Kuhn, Director, Head of Aviation Capital Markets, Deutsche Bank Securities
Andrew Kleeman, Managing Director, Babson Capital Management LLC
Michael Dickey Morgan, Executive Managing Director, Burnham Sterling & Company
Michael Dickson, Managing Director, Citigroup
Marjan Riggi, Senior Managing Director, Financial Institutions and Corporates, Kroll Bond Rating Agency
3:10PM Airlines analysed: Credit trends in the global airline industry
  • The key indicators
  • Overall outlook
  • Regional variances
  • Different business models
Michael Duff, Managing Director - The Airline Analyst, Airfinance Journal
3:40PM Destabilising factors impacting the industry
  • How do fuel prices stand to impact airline, lessor & OEM profitability?
  • How vulnerable is the industry to international conflict?
  • What impact do interest rate changes have on airline, lessor & OEM profitability?
Peter Morris, Chief Economist, Flight Ascend Consultancy
4:10PM Are the book to bill ratios of Boeing & Airbus the signs of a downturn?
  • It will be the first time since 2009 either manufacturer falls short of their book to bill of one, what does this mean?
  • Will Boeing & Airbus be able to shift older generation planes?
  • What trends are we seeing in rates of deferrals and cancellations?
Francois Collet, Vice President Structured Finance Banks and Capital Markets, Airbus
Ray Sisson, Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, AVi8 Air Capital
Wendy Sowers, Director of Product Forecasting, Boeing Commercial Airplanes
4:40PM Why should investors consider the regional market?

Regional OEMs seek to answer to the following questions posed by an industry leading finance expert:

  • Why should I get into the regional business?
  • What makes regional aircraft a good investment?
  • Why should I finance your aircraft?
Ross Mitchell, Vice President Commercial Operations, Bombardier Commercial Aircraft
Eddie Jaisaree, SVP of Sales, Mitsubishi Aircraft Corporation America
Sergio Guedes, Director - Customer Finance North America, EMBRAER
Rod Sheridan, Advisor to the Chairman, Nordic Aviation Capital
John Moore, Head of Global Sales, ATR
5:20PM Chairperson’s closing remarks

Airlines & Financiers Day: Wednesday, May 17, 2017

8:30AM Registration and refreshments
8:50AM Chairperson’s opening remarks
Donald G. Gray, Chair, Aviation & Aerospace Group, Blake, Cassels & Graydon LLP
9:00AM How will new realities in the world including the new US administration affect aviation?
  • What impact do promises to prevent the export of U.S jobs stand to have on the aviation industry?
  • How will the Trump administration’s attitude towards China affect aviation?
  • What is the significance of the Trump administrations’ discontent with Middle Eastern carriers’ interpretation of open skies?
Adam Pilarski, Senior Vice President, AVITAS
9:30AM On-stage interview: Canadian LCCs get a boost
  • What does the increase in foreign ownership in the Canadian market mean for LCCs?
  • Can 49% foreign ownership increase competition enough to drive down fares?
  • What will be the implications for existing carriers?
Jim Scott, Chief Executive Officer, Jetlines
10:10AM Networking and morning refreshments
10:40AM An update from Latin American airlines
  • With the macro economy picking up, what does this mean for growth in the sector in the region?
  •  What sources of funding will airlines in the region tap into?
  •  What impact is increased stability in local economies having on airlines’ fleet planning strategy?
John Rodgerson, Chief Financial Officer, Azul Linhas Aereas Brasileiras
Jose Ignacio Dougnac, Chief Financial Officer, Sky Airline
Douglas Brennan, CEO, Stellwagen Group Limited
11:20AM Trends in North American LCC issuance
  • What structures have we seen in the last 12 months?
  • Will North America LCCs look more towards the capital markets or banking markets in 2017?
  • How is an imminent rise in fuel and labour costs impacting financing strategies of LCCs
Moderator: Radha Tilton, Managing Director, Goldman Sachs & Co
Ted Christie, Executive Vice President, Spirit Airlines
Jennifer Bue, Director, Treasury, WestJet
12:00PM Impact on new engine demand given current/near-term market dynamics
  • How are rising interest rates and other macro factors likely to impact engine demand this year?
  • Engine production forecast for the Americas
  • Latest product developments
Evan Harding, Leap/CFM Marketing Director, CFM
12:15PM Lunch and networking
1:45PM US airlines' 2017 financing outlook
  • What sources of funding will airlines tap into in 2017?
  • With a decline in operating leases in the region US carrier now own more of their fleet, does this make them less flexible?
  • What new structures can we expect to see?
Moderator: Patrick Kaufer, Managing Director, Global Head of Aviation Capital Markets, Deutsche Bank
Amelia Anderson, Co-Founder & President, AWAR
Jude Bricker, Vice President and Treasurer, Allegiant Air
Andy Nelson, Managing Director, Delta Air Lines
2:30PM What challenges do lessors face in an increasingly competitive leasing environment?
  • What opportunities do lessors see in the North American market?
  • Despite increasing profitability and younger average fleet age investors are still not convinced by lessors, why?
  • How do newer entrants differentiate themselves from the competition and what can they offer to North American airlines?
Ryan McKenna, Vice President, Air Lease Corporation
Steve Townend, Chief Commercial Officer, BOC Aviation Limited
Ricardo Toro, Managing Director, ABS/EETC, BNP Paribas
Khanh T Tran, President & Chief Executive Officer, Aviation Capital Group
Paul Rofe, Group Treasurer, Aercap
3:15PM Aviation continues to attract investors
  • Who are the new investors in aviation and what are they investing in?
  • Given the high risk between airlines and lessors, what would investors choose for a comparably rated security issue: lessors’ or airlines’; ABS or EETCs.
  •  Should buyers of equity have input into management decisions such as new leases and servicing agreements?
Moderator: Jim Scott, Chief Executive Officer, Jetlines
Keith Allman, Vice President - Senior Securitized Asset Analyst, Loomis Sayles
Bob Peart, Portfolio Manager, Magnetar Capital
Trevor Ricards, Senior Vice President, Capital Markets, GECAS
James Raff, CEO, RPK Capital
John Beekman, Analyst, Fidelity Investments
Matt Hoesley, Head of Finance, Altavair AirFinance
4:00PM Chairperson’s closing remarks