20th Annual Global Airfinance Conference Dublin 2018

8:00AM Registration & Morning Refreshments

8:55AM Chairperson's opening remarks

9:00AM How should you invest in the market?

• Should you invest in debt, in equity, in airlines, in lessors or directly into the asset?

• What factors are impacting investment returns and where are tomorrow’s opportunities?

• What impact has the flow of new money had in the aviation market and what is the outlook for 2018?

9:30AM 2018: The Year of the Next Transformation?

2018 could be the year of the next transformation in commercial aviation, with the possibile of a launch of the New Midrange Aircraft set to have major implications for Boeing, Airbus and the entire supply chain. Scott Hamilton of Leeham Co. explains.

10:10AM Networking break

Our networking breaks offer the opportunity to catch up with colleagues around a cup of coffee in our Open Lounge or in our Meeting Lounge for pre-arranged 1:1 meetings through our brand new app (1:1 Meeting Service available for Airlines and Lessors to connect with Investors – please contact us to take advantage of this service)

11:10AM Who decides how much an aircraft is worth & how do they do it?

• What are the different types of appraisal and valuation methodologies?
• Which types of appraisals are most applicable to each type of investor, or each type of transaction?
• Which types of assets prove the most viable opportunities for different types of transactions today, and why?

11:40AM Valuation methodology exercise

Watch an appraiser walk through the steps taken before reaching a conclusive value for an aircraft.

12:20PM Opportunities in the Sub-150 seat market segment

• Are CRJs & some of the earlier more niche Embraer aircraft easy to place?
• Is the ATR market overcrowded?
• Are we likely to see any more consolidation in the market given last year’s acquisitions of Aldus & Jetscape by NAC?

11:10AM Why invest in aviation?

• Stable, long term cash flows combined with a flexible asset are attractive to investors – What should long term investors be aware of to make the most of their investment?
• What regulation exists to protect investors?
• What pitfalls should investors be mindful of?

11:50AM Managed vehicle strategies

• How do investment vehicles work, what flexibility do they offer and how to manage the joint venture?
• How much of the equity should be owned by the pooled investment vehicle of long-term institutional investors?
• Are there particular assets that are more suited to these type of JVs?

12:20PM Investment opportunity: aircraft vs other asset classes

• Where does aviation sit amongst alternative asset classes?
• Are the conditions impacting yield in aviation being felt universally?
• What are the advantages and disadvantages that aircraft face as investment opportunities?

1:00PM Networking Lunch

2:30PM The evolution of new technology single aisle aircraft – a MAX family case study

• Will the release of the MAX 10 cannibalise the product and impact residual values?

• Strategically, have Boeing been too reactive with the MAX programme?

• Examining the depth and width of operator base for new technology aircraft

3:00PM What can we expect from the financial performance of widebody aircraft?

• How can investors protect their asset against insolvency?

• What lessons should investors learn from the two latest European airline insolvencies?

• Are Alitalia & AirBerlin signs of more Eurpean bankruptcies to come or outliers in an otherwise robust market place?

3:30PM Appraisal disparity in the aircraft ABS market

• Given that appraisers used the same data and similar methodology why were engine asset valuations so far apart on the WEST III deal?

• What implications do appraisal disparities have for issuers and investors?

• What solutions, if any, are available to appraisers and investors looking at future ABS transactions?

4:10PM How to improve residual value forecasting

• Where do residual values hold and how significant is the impact of a decreasing aircraft economic life?

• What does the future hold for current generation aircraft given the rise of new aircraft technology?

• Has the rise of leasing companies weakened residual values?

4:40PM Developments in engine technology

5:20PM The impact of new entrants on asset values

• How is new capital injected in the industry by Asian investors impacting asset values and investment opportunities?

• What would happen to the assets being financed by this new capital in the event of a downturn?

• What investment opportunities are being created by new entrants or will open up in the nearer and longer term?

2:30PM When to access unsecured debt?

• In what circumstances should airlines and lessors be looking to the unsecured debt market to finance transactions?
• What indicators are lenders using to determine rates on this type of product?
• How to put together the best unsecured deal?

3:00PM Anticipating airline insolvency

• How can investors protect their asset against insolvency?
• What lessons should investors learn from the three latest European airline insolvencies?
• Are Alitalia, AirBerlin and Monarch signs of more European bankruptcies to come or outliers in an otherwise robust market place?

3:40PM How deep is the private placement market?

• How does the private placement market compare to other sources of funding? For example EETCs, ABS or bank debt?

4:10PM Are debt investors being left vulnerable in the modern ABS market?

• As the chase for yield intensifies, are debt investors being left vulnerable?

• How does the current ABS market compare to previous generations?

4:40PM Aircraft and engine exit strategies

• What innovative strategies can lessors employ when faced with the task of remarketing an aircraft?
• Given recent insolvencies across Europe, are lessors anticipating an increased rate of aircraft in need of remarketing in the coming year?
• Do we expect to see the secondary market for narrow-body aircraft maintain its strength over 2018 and beyond?

5:20PM Engine Leasing: A new opportunity for Asian investors?

• How is the engine lease market faring?

• Engine lease rates and outlook

• What are the opportunities for new entrants from Asia?

6:00PM Chairperson's closing remarks

6:05PM Open Icebreaker

8:00AM Registration & Morning Refreshments

8:55AM Chairperson's opening remarks

9:00AM What should the global airline industry be doing next?

•  Is further consolidation necessary in an increasingly competitive global market?

•  Are the insolvencies of Alitalia, Air Berlin and Monarch a sign of things to come, or outliers in an otherwise robust market?

•  How can airline finance teams make the most of the airline's assets?

9:40AM Lessor CEO interviews with Laura Mueller & Olivier Bonnassies

In a series of back to back interviews, the Managing Directors of Airfinance Journal will get to the bottom of the most prominent Lessor CEOs’ strategies

10:30AM Networking Break

11:15AM Why Should European Airlines Consider Further Consolidation?

• Are European “fare wars” sustainable? Is consolidation inevitable in the face of rising competition?
• What mechanisms exist for consolidation given the existence of ownership restrictions?
• Is consolidation necessary to protect profitability?

11:45AM Implications of Impending Fleet Renewals for Investors

• The 737-800 has long been the flag bearer for investors, will the MAX10 follow its footsteps?

• Opportunities & challenges of investing in current technology aircraft – which asset to look out for?

• Forecasting residual values for new technology narrow-bodies

2:00PM Airline Credit Trends

An introduction to The Airline Analyst Data by Airfinance Journal (LIVE DEMO)

3:10PM Global Fleet Insight

An introduction to The Fleet Tracker Data by Airfinance Journal (LIVE DEMO)

4:30PM Financial Structures & Sources Over-Time

An introduction to The Deal Tracker Data by Airfinance Journal (LIVE DEMO)

5:15PM Airline Financial Ratings

An introduction to The Airline Analyst Financial Ratings Data by Airfinance Journal (LIVE DEMO)

11:15AM Lessor CEO interviews

12:00PM MC-21 En route to the global market

12:25PM Networking Lunch

1:55PM Financing trends in the global airline industry

• How healthy is the global airline market?
• Are recent European airline insolvencies a concern to global carriers? Are there lessons to be learnt?
• Which financing structures are projected to become more prominent for carriers in the new year?

2:35PM LCLH market assessment - is it worth it in the long haul?

• Regional comparisons between trans-Asian and trans-Atlantic low-cost-long-haul

• If successful, can we expect more LCCs to tap into the long-haul market? Should legacy carriers be worried about this?

• How sustainable is Norwegian Air’s aggressive route expansion strategy?

3:15PM Balloon Debate: “This house believes the cycle is due for a downturn”

Taking a break from traditional aviation assets, our experts have decided to take a leisurely hot air balloon ride when disaster strikes, the balloon is going down and excess weight must be shed. The only way to decide fairly is, naturally, debating the nature of the aviation industry cycle. Who remains? The audience decides.

• Are new entrants prepared for a downturn? Should they be?
• Who will be most vulnerable if the cycle turns?
• Could the industry benefit from a market disruption?

4:05PM Networking Break

4:35PM Are low lease rate factors in the SLB market the new norm?

• What can lessors do to maximise profitability in current market conditions?
• What direction do we expect lease rate factors to go in 2018?
• Is further lessor consolidation the answer?

5:15PM Future proofing your company in 2018

• Where is the price of oil going & should you hedge?
• Is your company BEPS ready?
• What is the likely impact of Basel IV?

5:45PM Pilarski says...

Adam Pilarski assesses macro drivers and factors impacting the industry, providing an indication of asset pricing and where we are in the cycle.

6:10PM Chairperson's Closing Remarks

6:15PM Open cocktail reception hosted by KPMG (open to all, CCD)

8:00AM Registration & morning refreshments

9:05AM Chairperson's opening remarks

9:10AM Airline Credit Trends

An introduction to The Airline Analyst Data by Airfinance Journal (LIVE DEMO)

9:40AM Global Fleet Insight

An introduction to The Fleet Tracker Data by Airfinance Journal (LIVE DEMO)

10:10AM Global Aviation Industry in Numbers: Trends & Analysis

• Airline KPIs
• Industry financials (revenues / yields / cost structures / leverage / liquidity)
• Airline credit quality

11:00AM How to Attract Fixed Income Investors on a Secured & Unsecured Basis?

• How to manage investors during central banks move towards a normalised monetary policy?
• Where the most active investors in aviation finance and what are they looking for in an investment opportunity?
• Can we expect the fixed income market to remain as prolific as we’ve seen it throughout 2017?

11:40AM Financial Structures & Sources Over-Time

An introduction to The Deal Tracker Data by Airfinance Journal (LIVE DEMO)

12:20PM How to Minimise Earnings Volatility

9:10AM On-stage Interview: Boom Supersonic

• Which airlines are best suited to provide a supersonic service?

• What impact will the aircraft have on the broader aviation industry?

• Manufacturing capacity and asset valuation

9:40AM Macro-economic risk demystified I

• Winners & losers of Brexit
• What does the rise of the global middle-class mean for aviation?
• Macro geopolitics - “What is happening with Global GDP?

10:10AM How to run a successful airline in the Middle East

• As one of the most competitive regions in the world for airlines, how to make yourself stand out from the crowd?

• Can we anticipate an increase in airline consolidation in the Middle East?

• To what extent does the region suffer from oversupply?

10:30AM Networking Break

11:00AM Ten golden rules for Asian lessors entering the aviation market

• What makes a successful Asian Leasing company?
• Price discovery, aircraft values and industry cycle consideration and pitfalls to avoid
• Exit strategies and consolidation

11:40AM What can we learn from the rise of LCCs & ULCCs in emerging markets

• What makes emerging markets such a prominent ground for new airline launches?

• Can emerging markets sustain the rise of LCCs and ULCCs?

• Will we see more consolidation in the long term?

12:20PM AFIC – Insurance markets delivering new aircraft finance solutions

• How exactly does this new structure work and how can market participants utilise it? • Where does AFIC fit into the current market place and what is it trying to achieve? • What implications does this new product have for the broader financing landscape?

12:50PM Turkish Airlines keynote presentation

1:20PM A ten year journey & the future for Chinese lessors

1:35PM Networking Lunch

2:50PM Dedicated 1:2:1 Meetings