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Agenda Overview

Investor Day: Tuesday, January 22, 2019

8:00AM Registration & morning refreshments
8:55AM Chairperson's opening remarks
Drew S Fine, Partner, Milbank, Tweed, Hadley & McCloy
Jim Pascale, Partner - New York, Milbank, Tweed, Hadley & McCloy
9:00AM Aviation capital markets review & outlook
  • Where are we in the industry cycle?
  • Traffic growth forecasts, will they materialise?
  • How much liquidity is currently chasing aviation assets and what impact has increased levels of liquidity had on the industry overall?
Mark Streeter, Managing Director, Airline/Aircraft Credit Research, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
10:00AM Reviewing credit trends for airlines – the Airline Credit Quality Index
  • In May 2018 The Airline Analyst found for that for the first time in four years, by its own criteria more airlines declined in financial strength than improved, what does this mean for the industry?
  • Can we expect this trend to continue?
  • What impact do we expect to see on the broader industry?
Michael Duff, Managing Director, The Airline Analyst
10:30AM Morning networking break & refreshments
11:00AM Should the proliferation of European airline insolvency make investors give pause?
  • 2018 has seen the trend of European airline insolvencies continue, with more European carriers going bust this year than last – what does this tell us about the European market?
  • As the race to investment grade intensifies in the leasing space, where should investors look to deploy capital in aviation?
  • At what stage can we say that the airline credit cycle has turned?
Joseph Rohlena, Senior Director, Fitch Ratings
Helene Spro Johansen, Associate Director Project Finance, Scope Ratings AG
Philip A Baggaley, CFA, Managing Director, Corporate & Government Ratings, S&P Global
Jonathan Root, Senior Vice President, Moody's Investors Service
Jim Cameron, Partner - London, Milbank, Tweed, Hadley & McCloy
Marjan Riggi, Senior Managing Director, Kroll Bond Rating Agency
11:40AM What do engine OEMs have to do to restore trust with operators & lessors
  • All the engine OEM s are in turmoil. What’s happened and when are the problems over?
  • ETOPS issues EASA and FAA limited ETOPS.
  • What’s the fallout?
  • How quickly will 787 recover?
  • More importantly, will the regulators revisit ETOPS approvals for new airplanes (like the 777X, up next?)
Richard Goodhead, Senior Vice President, Marketing, Rolls-Royce PLC
Scott Hamilton, Managing Director, Leeham Co.
12:00PM Networking lunch
1:40PM Investing in the metal: Competing aircraft product lines
  • We’ve seen substantial M&A activity in the OEM space, does one product line clearly outshine the other for investors now?
  • How strong is the current product outlook from the OEMs?
  • Has the case for investing in widebody aircraft strengthened or weakened over the last 12 months?
Mark Pearman-Wright, Head of Leasing & Investor Marketing, Airbus
Tim Myers, President, Boeing Capital Corporation
Scott Hamilton, Managing Director, Leeham Co.
2:20PM How does aviation stack up against other asset classes?
  • Why has aviation remained such a robust industry vs other transport asset classes, such as shipping?
  • What do buy-side investors need to know about this asset class in order to ensure the most positive returns possible?
  • What are the obvious entry points for new investors looking at aviation?
David Andrews, Managing Partner - Transport, Hudson Structured Capital Management
Damon J D'Agostino, President & Chief Executive Officer, Zephyrus Aviation Capital
Drew Fine, Partner, Milbank, Tweed, Headley & McCloy LLP
Gary Fitzgerald, Chief Executive Officer, Stratos
Jim Pascale, Partner - New York, Milbank, Tweed, Hadley & McCloy
3:20PM Afternoon networking break & refreshments
3:40PM The impact of new entrants on asset values
  • How is new capital injected in the industry by Asian investors impacting asset values and investment opportunities?
  • What would happen to the assets being financed by this new capital in the event of a downturn?
  • What investment opportunities are being created by new entrants or will open up in the nearer and longer term?
Marc Iarchy, Principal, World Star Aviation UK
James Moon, Chief Executive Officer, Aermoon
Tomas Sidlauskas, Chief Executive Officer, AviaAM Financial Leasing China
Bill Cumberlidge, Managing Director, Centrus Aviation Capital
Roman Lyadov, Chief Executive Officer, GTLK Europe
Jim Pascale, Partner - New York, Milbank, Tweed, Hadley & McCloy
4:20PM What's causing the discrepancy between real & theoretical values?

Often the base value of an aircraft as offered in appraisal does not directly translate to transactions; as such a disparity between "real" and "theoretical" values has emerged. Hear the experts breakdown these disparities and offer an informative view on what your assets are really worth, with or without leases attached.

Scott Hamilton, Managing Director, Leeham Co.
George Dimitroff, Head of Valuations, Flight Ascend Consultancy
Olga Razzhivina, Senior ISTAT Appraiser, ORIEL
Rikard de Jounge, Vice President - Asset Valuations, Avitas
Mike Yeomans, Head of Valuations, IBA Group Limited
5:20PM Chairperson's closing remarks
5:25PM Networking drinks reception

Day 1: Wednesday, January 23, 2019

Main Conference

8:00AM Registration & morning refreshments
8:55AM Chairperson's opening remarks
Gillian Kelly, Partner, KPMG
9:00AM Will strong airline performance continue through a challenging macro environment?
  • How will airlines react to a shifting macro-economic environment featuring higher fuel prices & interest rates?
  • Will we see increased fleet turnover as the economic case for mid-life assets deteriorate?
  • How do airlines expect to develop their fleet planning over the next 10-15 years & what does that mean for delivery profiles?
Declan Ryan, Managing Partner & Executive Chair, Irelandia & Viva Air
Ricardo Javier Sanchez Baker, Chief Financial Officer, Aeromexico
Kieran O’Brien, Partner - Head of Aviation Finance & Leasing Advisory, KPMG
Meseret Bitew, Chief Financial Officer, Ethiopian Airlines
Mike Powell, Executive Chairman, Flybondi
9:40AM Headwinds facing airline treasuries
  • How are airlines strengthening their position vis a vis rising interest rates?
  • What fuel hedging strategies do airlines have in place in the face of rising fuel prices?
  • Which financing structures are best suited to today’s macro environment?
Christine Rovelli, Vice President - Group Treasurer, Finnair
Marjan Riggi, Senior Managing Director, Kroll Bond Rating Agency
Chris Monroe, Senior Vice President, Finance & Treasurer, Southwest Airlines
Erlendur Svavarsson, Senior Vice President, Loftleidir Icelandic
Steven Udvar-Hazy, Executive Chairman, Air Lease Corporation
Tamer Yuzuak, Senior Vice President, Finance and Fleet Management, Pegasus Airlines
10:20AM Lessor CEO interviews

Back by popular demand, hear the CEO’s of the world’s most influential leasing companies discuss what they see as the future of aviation finance and their strategies for achieving it.

Alec Burger, President and CEO, GECAS
Aengus Kelly, Chief Executive Officer, AerCap
Bertrand Dehouck, Head of EMEA, BNP Paribas
Domhnal Slattery, Chief Executive Officer, Avolon
Greg Lee, Managing Director, Goldman Sachs
11:30AM Morning refreshments & networking break
11:50AM Continued CEO interviews

Back by popular demand, hear the CEO’s of the world’s most influential leasing companies discuss what they see as the future of aviation finance and their strategies for achieving it.

Norman Liu, Senior Advisor, ICBC Leasing
John Plueger, Chief Executive Officer and President, Air Lease Corporation
Patrick Hannigan, President & Chief Commercial Officer, CDB Aviation Lease Finance
Firoz Tarapore, Chief Executive Officer, Dubai Aerospace Enterprise (DAE) Ltd
1:05PM Networking lunch
2:10PM Do we expect demand for cargo aircraft to continue to rise?
  • What degree of cargo fleet renewal can we expect to see across the cargo market segment?
  • When will the economic case for 700s & 800s make sense for cargo operators?
  • How popular do we expect cargo conversions be for both operators & lessors?
Edward McGarvey, Senior Vice President & Treasurer, Atlas Air Worldwide
Richard Greener, Senior Vice President & Manager Cargo, GE Capital Aviation Services
Paul Rasquin, Director Fleet Planning, Cargolux Airlines International SA
Russ Hubbard, Director - Aircraft Remarketing, Air Partner
Paul Nolan, Group Fleet Development Director, CargoLogic Management
Hugh Flynn, Group Chief Executive, ASL Airlines, ASL Aviation Holdings DAC
2:50PM Is a new wave of lessor consolidation upon us?
  • In light of Goshawk’s acquisition of Sky Leasing, can we expect more of this activity in 2019?
  • Will the race to the bottom in the sale and leaseback market cause consolidation to proliferate?
  • How sustainable is the growth of entrants from Asia?
Paul Sheridan, Chief Executive Officer, Accipiter
Tom Barrett, President & Chief Executive Officer Designate, Engine Lease Finance Corporation
Doug Walker, Managing Director & Global Head of Coverage, Seabury Consulting & Corporate Advisory
Stephen Cook, Global Head of Transportation Finance, Executive Director, Macquarie Bank
James Meyler, Chief Executive Officer, ORIX Aviation Group
Bo Huang, Chief Commercial Officer, CMB Financial Leasing Co
Joey Zhou, Senior Vice President, BOCOMM Aviation Leasing Ireland
3:40PM Afternoon networking break & refreshments
4:00PM Can we expect the frequency of ABS issuance to continue to rise in 2019?
  • The level of aircraft ABS issuance set records in 2018, what is driving this market segment and what do investors need to know to utilise it?
  • What impact can asset appraisers have on the overall value proposition of aircraft securitisations?
  • What role do lessor “sidecars” or management vehicles play in the market today?
Radha Tilton, Managing Director, Goldman Sachs
Keith Allman, Vice President Senior Securitized Asset Analyst, Loomis Sayles
Mary E Kane, Managing Director, Head of ABS Research, Citi
Ryan McKenna, Vice President, Air Lease Corporation
Steven Gaal, Managing Partner & Co-Founder, Skyworks Capital, LLC
Vinodh Srinivasan, Managing Director and Co-Head of the Structured Credit Group, Mizuho Securities USA
4:40PM Pilarski says...Drink

Back by ever popular demand, hear one of the industry’s most prominent & respected economists give his forecast on the industry’s future, what headwinds we ought to be cognisant of – in his trademark entertaining style.

Adam Pilarski, Senior Vice President, AVITAS
5:10PM In conversation with John Leahy

Exclusively at Airfinance Journal Dublin 2019, hear John Leahy in his first public appearance since retirement giving his take on the future of the aviation industry in this free-ranging interview

Moderator: Scott Hamilton, Managing Director, Leeham Co.
John Leahy, Chief Operating Officer - Customers, retired, Airbus
5:50PM Chairperson's closing remarks
Gillian Kelly, Partner, KPMG
5:55PM Open drinks reception

Day 2: Thursday, January 24, 2019

8:00AM Morning networking & refreshments
8:55AM Chairperson's opening remarks
9:00AM Wizz Air reach investment grade
Iain Wetherall, Chief Financial Officer, Wizz Air
9:30AM Investing in the engine sector
Gaël Meheust, President and CEO, CFM International
9:50AM Scope Clauses and the Impact on Bombardier & Mitsubishi: The Next 12 Months
  • In December 2017 the Alaskan Scope Clause negotiations resulted in no changes, however, since then, we know that future negotiations are set with American, Delta & United in 2018/19.
  • What is the future of the CRJ, E1725E2, MRJ190?
  • Could Scope Clause renegotiations open up the North American market to the CRJ, as Bombardier has claimed?
  • What’s the long life for the E175-E1 plus?
David Tokoph, Chief Operating Officer, Morten Beyer & Agnew
Eddie Jaisaree, Senior Vice President - Sales and Marketing, Mitsubishi Aircraft Corporation America
Pierre Gagnon, Senior Director, Bombardier Aerospace
Laura Mueller, Managing Director, Airfinance Journal
10:30AM Morning networking break & refreshments
10:50AM What does the future of low-cost-long-haul look like?
  • What is driving airlines towards this model and what impact do we see it having on incumbent legacy carriers?
  • What headwinds have impacted carriers attempting to operate this model up to now?
  • Which aircraft types have the right economics for this model to work?
Stephen Kavanagh, Board Director & Former CEO, Aer Lingus Group
Daniel Roeska, Vice President & Senior Analyst, European Transportation, Sanford C Bernstein
Albert Muntane Casanova, Senior Vice President, DVB Bank
11:30AM Factoring airline credit risk when taking bulk orders of new technology aircraft
  • What level of credit risk is being taken on when untested airlines make bulk orders of new technology aircraft?
  • What risk management strategies do OEM treasuries employ to mitigate chances of defaults?
  • Is it sensible for unestablished airlines to be making bulk orders of new technology aircraft primarily for the purpose of pricing?
  • Will the rise in interest rates impact the appetite for new technology aircraft?
Virginia Fox, Chief Risk Officer, GE Capital Aviation Services
Phil Seymour, Chief Executive Officer & ISTAT Senior Fellow Appraiser, IBA Group Limited
Brian Rynott, Managing Director, Alton Aviation Consultancy
Catherine Duffy, Partner, Aviation & Transport Finance, A&L Goodbody
12:10PM If a cycle downturn was here, what would it look like?

The matter of where we stand in the aviation industry cycle is a matter of constant debate; however often speculation reigns. Hear three experts cut through the noise; assess what the signs of a downturn would be if it were here, and analyse whether or not those signs are present today.

Vicky Pryce, Former Joint Head of UK Government Economic Service & Board Member, Centre for Economics & Business Research
Peter Morris, Chief Economist, Flight Ascend Consultancy
Vicente Alava-Pons, Managing Director, Regional Head of Aviation Finance EMEA, DVB Group Merchant Bank
12:40PM The impact of next generation technology on the aircraft leasing company
Kieran O’Brien, Partner - Head of Aviation Finance & Leasing Advisory, KPMG
Teddy Murphy, Chief Executive Officer, Miagen
1:00PM Ruth Kelly: In conversation
Betsy Snyder, Director, Corporate Ratings, S&P Global Ratings
Ruth Kelly, Chief Executive Officer, Goshawk Management (Ireland) Limited
1:20PM Lunch & end of conference