Session timeout

Sorry, your session timed out after a long time of inactivity. Please click OK and Sign In again.


Agenda Overview

Investor Day: Tuesday, January 23, 2018

8:00AM Registration & Morning Refreshments
8:55AM Chairperson's opening remarks
Drew S. Fine, Partner, Milbank, Tweed, Hadley & McCloy
9:00AM How should you invest in the market?

• Should you invest in debt, in equity, in airlines, in lessors or directly into the asset?

• What factors are impacting investment returns and where are tomorrow’s opportunities?

• What impact has the flow of new money had in the aviation market and what is the outlook for 2018?

Mark Streeter, Managing Director, Airline/Aircraft Credit Research, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
9:30AM 2018: The Year of the Next Transformation?

2018 could be the year of the next transformation in commercial aviation, with the possibile of a launch of the New Midrange Aircraft set to have major implications for Boeing, Airbus and the entire supply chain. Scott Hamilton of Leeham Co. explains.

Scott Hamilton, Owner of Leeham News and Comment, Leeham Co.
10:10AM Networking break

Our networking breaks offer the opportunity to catch up with colleagues around a cup of coffee in our Open Lounge or in our Meeting Lounge for pre-arranged 1:1 meetings through our brand new app (1:1 Meeting Service available for Airlines and Lessors to connect with Investors – please contact us to take advantage of this service)

Asset Valuation Stream - Morning Sessions

11:10AM Who decides how much an aircraft is worth & how do they do it?
  • What are the different types of appraisal and valuation methodologies?
  • Which types of appraisals are most applicable to each type of investor, or each type of transaction?
  • Which types of assets prove the most viable opportunities for different types of transactions today, and why?
Laetitia Achille, Managing Director, Alton Aviation Consultancy
11:40AM Valuation methodology exercise

Watch an appraiser walk through the steps taken before reaching a conclusive value for an aircraft, and hear a leasing industry leader give their feedback on both the methodology and conclusion.

Doug Kelly, Senior Vice President - Asset Valuation, Avitas
12:20PM Opportunities in the Sub-150 seat market segment
  • Are CRJs & some of the earlier more niche Embraer aircraft easy to place?
  • Is the ATR market overcrowded?
  • Are we likely to see any more consolidation in the market given last year’s acquisitions of Aldus & Jetscape by NAC?
Moderator: Geoff Hearn, Technical Editor, Airfinance Journal
Jerome Gabory, Head of Leasing Markets, ATR
Rodrigo Silva e Souza, Vice President, Market Intelligence Commercial Aviation, EMBRAER
Ross Mitchell, Vice President Commercial Operations, Bombardier Commercial Aircraft
Gregory Alberts, SVP Global Finance & Lease, Mitsubishi Aircraft Corp America

Investor Stream - Morning Sessions

11:10AM Why invest in aviation?
  • Stable, long term cash flows combined with a flexible asset are attractive to investors – What should long term investors be aware of to make the most of their investment?
  • What regulation exists to protect investors?
  • What pitfalls should investors be mindful of?
Moderator: Jim Pascale, Partner, Milbank, Tweed, Hadley & McCloy
Bob Peart, Portfolio Manager, Magnetar Capital
Sean M Hinze, Senior Vice President, PIMCO
David Andrews, Managing Partner - Transport, Hudson Structured Capital Management
11:50AM Blackbird Capital II - How do investment vehicles work?
  • How do investment vehicles work, what flexibility do they offer and how to manage the joint venture?
  • How much of the equity should be owned by the pooled investment vehicle of long-term institutional investors?
  • Are there particular assets that are more suited to these type of JVs?
Ryan McKenna, Vice President and Head of Strategic Planning, Air Lease Corporation
12:20PM Investment opportunity: aircraft vs other asset classes
  • Where does aviation sit amongst alternative asset classes?
  • Are the conditions impacting yield in aviation being felt universally?
  • What are the advantages and disadvantages that aircraft face as investment opportunities?
Evan Carruthers, Managing Partner, Castlelake
1:00PM Networking Lunch

Asset Valuation Stream - Afternoon Sessions

2:30PM The evolution of new technology single aisle aircraft – a MAX family case study

• Will the release of the MAX 10 cannibalise the product and impact residual values?

• Strategically, have Boeing been too reactive with the MAX programme?

• Examining the depth and width of operator base for new technology aircraft

James Billing, Managing Director, Airline Market Analysis, Boeing
3:00PM What can we expect from the financial performance of widebody aircraft?

• How can investors protect their asset against insolvency?

• What lessons should investors learn from the two latest European airline insolvencies?

• Are Alitalia & AirBerlin signs of more Eurpean bankruptcies to come or outliers in an otherwise robust market place?

David Tokoph, Chief Operating Officer, Morten Beyer & Agnew
3:30PM Appraisal disparity in the aircraft ABS market

• Given that appraisers used the same data and similar methodology why were engine asset valuations so far apart on the WEST III deal?

• What implications do appraisal disparities have for issuers and investors?

• What solutions, if any, are available to appraisers and investors looking at future ABS transactions?

Stuart Hatcher, Chief Intelligence Officer, IBA Group Limited
Gueric Dechavanne, Vice President, Commercial Aviation Services, Collateral Verifications
Rikard de Jounge, Vice President, Avitas
Drew S. Fine, Partner, Milbank, Tweed, Hadley & McCloy
4:10PM How to improve residual value forecasting

• Where do residual values hold and how significant is the impact of a decreasing aircraft economic life?

• What does the future hold for current generation aircraft given the rise of new aircraft technology?

• Has the rise of leasing companies weakened residual values?

Olga Razzhivina, Director, ORIEL
4:40PM Developments in engine technology
Christophe Poulain, Vice President Commercial Strategy, CFM International
5:20PM The impact of new entrant capital on asset values

• How is new capital injected in the industry by Asian investors impacting asset values and investment opportunities?

• What would happen to the assets being financed by this new capital in the event of a downturn?

• What investment opportunities are being created by new entrants or will open up in the nearer and longer term?

Dick Forsberg, Head of Strategy, Avolon
Phil Seymour, Chief Executive Officer, IBA Group Limited
John Graves, Managing Director, Asia and Middle East, Aviation Capital Group

Investor Stream - Afternoon Sessions

2:30PM When to access unsecured debt?
  • In what circumstances should airlines and lessors be looking to the unsecured debt market to finance transactions?
  • What indicators are lenders using to determine rates on this type of product?
  • How to put together the best unsecured deal?
Patrick Kaufer, Managing Director, Global Head of Aviation Capital Markets, Deutsche Bank
3:00PM Anticipating airline insolvency
  • How can investors protect their asset against insolvency?
  • What lessons should investors learn from the three latest European airline insolvencies?
  • Are Alitalia, AirBerlin and Monarch signs of more European bankruptcies to come or outliers in an otherwise robust market place?
Marjan Riggi, Managing Director, Kroll Bond Rating Agency
Jonathan Root, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Moody's Investors Service
Philip A. Baggaley, CFA, Managing Director, Corporate & Government Ratings, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services
Joseph Rohlena, Director, Fitch Ratings
3:40PM How deep is the private placement market?

• How does the private placement market compare to other sources of funding? For example EETCs, ABS or bank debt?

Michael Dickey-Morgan, Executive Managing Director, Burham Sterling & Company
4:10PM Are debt investors being left vulnerable in the modern ABS market?

• As the chase for yield intensifies, are debt investors being left vulnerable?

• How does the current ABS market compare to previous generations?

Keith Allman, Vice President, Senior Securitized Asset Analyst, Loomis Sayles
4:40PM Aircraft and engine exit strategies
  • What innovative strategies can lessors employ when faced with the task of remarketing an aircraft?
  • Given recent insolvencies across Europe, are lessors anticipating an increased rate of aircraft in need of remarketing in the coming year?
  • Do we expect to see the secondary market for narrow-body aircraft maintain its strength over 2018 and beyond?
5:10PM Engine Leasing: A new opportunity for Asian investors?

• How is the engine lease market faring?

• Engine lease rates and outlook

• What are the opportunities for new entrants from Asia?

Roger Welaratne, Senior Vice President & Manger, AMS, GECAS
Paul Finkelstein, Director of Marketing, Pratt & Whitney
Akinori Kojima, Managing Director & CEO, Sumisho Aero Engine Lease
Paul Ng, Partner, Milbank, Tweed, Hadley & McCloy LLP
6:00PM Chairperson's closing remarks
6:05PM Open Icebreaker

Dublin 2018 - Day 1: Wednesday, January 24, 2018

8:00AM Registration & Morning Refreshments
8:55AM Chairperson's opening remarks
9:00AM What should the global airline industry be doing next?

•  How can airline finance teams make the most of the airline’s assets?

•  Are the insolvencies of Alitalia, Air Berlin and Monarch a sign of things to come, or outliers in an otherwise robust market?

•  How can airline finance teams make the most of the airline's assets?

Moderator: Steven Udvar-Hazy, Executive Chairman, Air Lease Corporation
Tom Mackay, Chief Financial Officer, Virgin Atlantic Airways
Goran Jansson, Dep President & Chief Financial Officer, SAS Airlines
Vitolds Jakovlevs, Chief Financial Officer, Air Baltic Corporation
Iain Wetherall, Chief Financial Officer, Wizz Air
Fernando Suarez Gerard, Chief Financial Officer, Volaris
9:40AM Lessor CEO interviews with Laura Mueller & Olivier Bonnassies

In a series of back to back interviews, the Managing Directors of Airfinance Journal will get to the bottom of the most prominent Lessor CEOs’ strategies

Moderator: Laura Mueller, Managing Director, Airfinance Journal
Moderator: Olivier Bonnassies, Joint Managing Director, Airfinance Journal
Alec Burger, President and CEO, GECAS
Aengus Kelly, Chief Executive Officer, Aercap Inc.
Firoz Tarapore, Chief Executive Officer, Dubai Aerospace Enterprise
10:30AM Networking Break
11:15AM Debate: Foreseeable problems & solutions to oversupply

• Can the market sustain the backlog for widebody aircraft?

• What strategies can airlines and lessors employ to manage profitability amongst substantial capex commitments?

• Will OEMS be able to deliver against the current timeline?

Mike Warner, Managing Director – Aircraft Programs, Boeing
Mark Lapidus, Chief Executive Officer, Amedeo
12:05PM Disruption in the medium haul aircraft family: The Irkut MC-21
12:25PM Networking Lunch
1:55PM Financing trends in the global airline industry
  • How healthy is the global airline market?
  • Are recent European airline insolvencies a concern to global carriers? Are there lessons to be learnt?
  • Which financing structures are projected to become more prominent for carriers in the new year?
Ursula Hurley, Director, Assistant Treasurer, JetBlue Airways Corporation
Amelia Anderson, Managing Director, Assistant Treasurer, American Airlines
Christine Rovelli, Vice President- Financial Analysis & Strategy, Finnair
Edward McGarvey, Vice President & Treasurer, Atlas Air Worldwide
2:35PM LCLH market assessment - is it worth it in the long haul?

• Regional comparisons between trans-Asian and trans-Atlantic low-cost-long-haul

• If successful, can we expect more LCCs to tap into the long-haul market? Should legacy carriers be worried about this?

• How sustainable is Norwegian Air’s aggressive route expansion strategy?

Tore Ostby, Cheif Financial Officer, Norwegian Air Shuttle
3:15PM Balloon Debate: “This house believes the cycle is due for a downturn”

Taking a break from traditional aviation assets, our experts have decided to take a leisurely hot air balloon ride when disaster strikes, the balloon is going down and excess weight must be shed. The only way to decide fairly is, naturally, debating the nature of the aviation industry cycle. Who remains? The audience decides.

  • Are new entrants prepared for a downturn? Should they be?
  • Who will be most vulnerable if the cycle turns?
  • Could the industry benefit from a market disruption?
Bill Cumberlidge, Executive Director, Aviation Partners Limited
Douglas Walker, Managing Director, Sky Works Capital
Marian Pistik, Chief Executive Officer, Aerotask
Michael Cox, Managing Director and Global Head of Corporate Advisory, Seabury Consulting now part of Accenture
4:05PM Networking Break
4:35PM Are low lease rate factors in the SLB market the new norm?
  • What can lessors do to maximise profitability in current market conditions?
  • What direction do we expect lease rate factors to go in 2018?
  • Is further lessor consolidation the answer?
John Plueger, Chief Executive Officer and President, Air Lease Corporation
David Power, Chief Executive Officer, ORIX Aviation
Khanh T. Tran, President & Chief Executive Officer, Aviation Capital Group
Peter Chang, President and CEO, CDB Aviation
5:15PM Macro-economic risk demystified I
  • Where is the price of oil going & should you hedge?
  • Is your company BEPS ready?
  • What is the likely impact of Basel IV?
Bertrand Dehouck, Head of EMEA, BNP Paribas
Robert Kokonis, President and Managing Director, AirTrav Inc.,
Brian Brennan, Director, KPMG
5:45PM Pilarski says...

Adam Pilarski assesses macro drivers and factors impacting the industry, providing an indication of asset pricing and where we are in the cycle.

Adam Pilarski, Senior Vice President, Avitas
6:10PM Chairperson's Closing Remarks
6:15PM Open Drinks Reception

Dublin 2018 - Day 2: Thursday, January 25, 2018

8:00AM Registration & morning refreshments
9:05AM Chairperson's Opening Remarks
9:10AM On-stage Interview: Boom Supersonic

• Which airlines are best suited to provide a supersonic service?

• What impact will the aircraft have on the broader aviation industry?

• Manufacturing capacity and asset valuation

Blake Scholl, Founder & Chief Executive Officer, Boom Supersonic
9:40AM Macro-economic risk demystified II
  • Winners & losers of Brexit
  • What does the rise of the global middle-class mean for aviation?
  • Macro geopolitics - “What is happening with Global GDP?
Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, International Air Transport Association (IATA)
Vicky Pryce, Former Joint Head of UK Government Economic Service & Board Member, Centre for Economics & Business Research
10:10AM How to run a successful airline in the Middle East

• As one of the most competitive regions in the world for airlines, how to make yourself stand out from the crowd?

• Can we anticipate an increase in airline consolidation in the Middle East?

• To what extent does the region suffer from oversupply?

Stefan Pichler, Chief Executive Officer, Royal Jordanian Airline
10:30AM Networking Break
11:00AM Ten golden rules for Asian lessors entering the aviation market
  • What makes a successful Asian Leasing company?
  • Price discovery, aircraft values and industry cycle consideration and pitfalls to avoid
  • Exit strategies and consolidation
Cristina Chang, Managing Director, Asia Pacific Structured Finance, Asia Pacific, Citi
Steve Townend, Chief Commercial Officer (Europe, Americas, Africa), BOC Aviation Limited
Gareth Delany, Executive Director & Chief Technical Officer, Ping An International Financial Leasing Co., Ltd.
11:40AM What can we learn from the rise of LCCs & ULCCs in emerging markets

• What makes emerging markets such a prominent ground for new airline launches?

• Can emerging markets sustain the rise of LCCs and ULCCs?

• Will we see more consolidation in the long term?

Mike Powell, Executive Chairman & Interim Chief Financial Officer, Flybondi
Brian Mulvihill, FC, Viva Colombia
Alexandre Malfitani, Chief Financial Officer and Investor Relations Officer, Azul Linhas Aereas Brasileiras
Jose Ignacio Dougnac, Chief Financial Officer, Sky Airline
12:20PM AFIC – Insurance markets delivering new aircraft finance solutions

• How exactly does this new structure work and how can market participants utilise it? • Where does AFIC fit into the current market place and what is it trying to achieve? • What implications does this new product have for the broader financing landscape?

Robert Morin, Managing Director - Transaction and Business Leader, Aircraft Finance Insurance Consortium (AFIC)
12:50PM Turkish Airlines keynote presentation
Murat Seker Ph.D., Chief Financial Officer, Turkish Airlines
1:20PM A ten year journey & the future for Chinese lessors
Ling Li, Managing Director, Aviation, Bocomm Leasing
1:35PM Networking Lunch
2:50PM Dedicated 1:2:1 Meetings